Version imprimableLast month, Erdo?an announced snap presidential and parliamentary elections for June 24, more than a year earlier than scheduled. There are several reasons behind Erdo?an’s move. Foreign debt above 500 billion US dollars, increasing inflation and unemployment, slowdown in construction sector growth, and the daily erosion of the lira (The Turkish lira lost over half of its value against the dollar since 2013) are all signs of a sharp slowdown. The sooner the vote, the better Erdo?an’s chances of winning before the crisis hits.
Another reason is to benefit from the wave of Turkish nationalism after the military operation targeting Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) militants in Afrin, Syria. The military campaign against Kurdish forces in Afrin was portrayed as a successful operation in the media. In his first speech after the announcement of snap elections, Erdo?an vowed that “the operations will continue until not one terrorist is left” as an election promise.
The third reason is about catching the parliamentary opposition, especially the ?yi (Good) Party led by Meral Ak?ener, off guard. The Iyi party has the potential to attract the votes of the nationalists who are abandoning the MHP (the Nationalist Movement Party) because of their leader’s U-turn from opposing Erdo?an to becoming his ally. Erdo?an ordered the Supreme Electoral Council of Turkey (YSK) to reduce the number of parties in the elections. The speed with which the snap elections were called was an attempt by the Erdo?an’s party, the AKP, to disqualify the ?yi Party from running, because it had been registered less than the mandatory six-month period prior to elections. The social democrat opposition party, CHP (the Republican People’s Party) transferred 15 of its own parliamentarians to the ?yi Party’s bloc of five (defectors from the MHP), entitling it to run in the election.
The opposition parties made an alliance agreement for the general elections. The strategy is to run as many presidential candidates as possible in the first round and to support Erdo?an’s rival in the second round. This can be either Ak?ener or the candidate of CHP, Muharrem Ince. The Kurdish HDP (People’s Democratic Party), whose leader is still in jail, was left out of the opposition alliance not to risk the nationalist votes for the alliance (particularly ?yi Party votes).
These elections are going to be the first time Turkey votes for both president and parliament on the same day. The presidential system that gave Erdo?an unprecedented power was passed with a small margin in 2017 with a fraudulent referendum. Nobody thinks that the elections are going to be fair at this point under the state of emergency rule. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights warned Turkey last week, stating that ‘‘the elections to be held under the state of emergency are not credible”. If Erdo?an wins, it will be a narrow win. He will have to face the ongoing problems. If he loses, he will not accept the result and he will seek to undo it.
Socialist parties are not able to go to the elections with their presidential candidates due to additional requirements set by YSK. Some of them declared that they will support HDP for strategic reasons. If HDP cannot pass the threshold vote (10%) in the first round, this will strengthen the AKP-MHP coalition. Some others protest the elections. For example, the Communist Party of Turkey (TKP) will participate in the general elections with independent candidates in several locations, but it is calling on people to protest the presidential elections by casting an invalid ballot. Half of the country is against the presidential system, and this is one way of showing opposition to the new system. TKP will use the election platforms to raise propaganda for system change and socialism.
Social democrats and other leftists are united with the rest of the opposition (including very reactionary elements of opposition) to get rid of Erdo?an. Sixteen years under the rule of AKP and Erdo?an meant increasing poverty and worsening working conditions for the working class. This period has seen the most extensive privatizations in the history of modern Turkey. The state-run tobacco company (TEKEL), chrome company, oil refinery Tüpra?, electricity companies, ports and other public establishments were all privatized. Occupational murders increased by 20 thousand under the AKP rule. State of emergency rules brought a ban on workers’ strikes. Overall inequality in society as well as poverty and indebtedness among workers has increased. The attacks on secular education, women’s rights, and the war against Kurdish citizens in Eastern provinces of Turkey are among many other reasons why people are united around the idea of getting rid of Erdo?an.
#TAMAM was a spontaneous response to Erdo?an and the AKP government’s policies. It gave a slogan to the opposition alliance. The alliance itself doesn’t have a program that will bring real change for working people. While the strategy for some socialists is to solely focus on defeating Erdo?an, this is a short sighted strategy, as socialists we
need to emphasize the inadequacy of electoral politics and build a movement for revolutionary socialist change.
May 18, 2018
