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An illegitimate regime, a success that prepares triumphs

Tuesday 9 June 2015, by Guillermo Almeyra

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After the electoral battle of June 7, 2015, the picture in Mexico is as follows: a 55% abstention rate that makes the “party” of non-voters (whether abstaining consciously or through lack of interest) the majority group by far. If we take the almost 5.5% of voters who chose to consciously spoil their vote along with blank votes representing a little less than 10% of the 45% who voted, or about 4% of the electoral roll, and add this sum to the 55% of abstainers, this brings the total of protest no votes to almost 60% (i.e., 6 out of every 10 Mexicans).

The percentages obtained by the parties participating in the electoral farce must be calculated in the light of these figures because they are exaggerated due to the very low number of voters, so that the 30% vote for the PRI represents in reality 30% of the 40% who voted, or 13% of the total electorate, while the PRD’s 11% is 11% of 40%, or a little more than 4.5%.

From the polls it is evident that this is a repudiated, minority, illegitimate system that, despite the fraud, the purchase of votes, the media campaigns of cultural intoxication, the state terrorism and militarization, could prevent neither the boycott in significant areas of Guerrero, Oaxaca and Chiapas, or the censure of blank and invalid votes whose number now exceeds most of the small parties participating in the electoral manoeuvre.

We must add to these results that the votes achieved by MORENA are votes against the PRI and its supporters, and in part votes against the system by those who did not have in their region another way to organize and express themselves, or believed in a form of struggle by contesting positions in the institutions in this round of voting (which was marked by the disappearances in Ayotzinapa and the militarization of the country).

The real situation is that the Mexican state clearly appears as a semi-state, which does not have “the monopoly of legitimate violence” or weapons, does not control large parts of the territory, and is governed by an oligarchic clique that lacks consensus. The levels of awareness, of moral opposition and organization of the combative trade unions and grassroots groups opposed to the electoral farce are without precedent and, with the election results, will increase and will be the basis for and even more massive mobilizations with great popular support.

All parties participating in the fraudulent elections lost votes and the PRI cannot rule alone, having to resort to their “green” puppets in the PVEM or Alianza, in addition to making agreements with the PAN and the PRD, which continues to survive against all odds, but is now mortally wounded because MORENA has grown at its expense.

The leadership of MORENA, before the achievement of seats in the Parliament and institutional positions in replacement of the PRD, claims victory and justifies its electioneering line by pretending to ignore the fact that the percentage of voters is much lower than the percentage of those who have the right to vote and that, therefore, MORENA is much more in a minority position than the PRD.

It is difficult, therefore, for MORENA to change its line adopted years ago of orientation towards a utopian and electoralist view of conquering the presidency in 2018 because the verticality of its caudillista structure “locks” the political conservatism of that party. But it is to be hoped that many honest activists analyze not only the results of this election – which highlight the isolation not only of the government but also of all of those who play the game - and seek to guide their party toward the social struggles and not only toward the presidential elections as in 1988 and 2006.