Version imprimableThe question that spontaneously arises is whether everything that has happened in recent days has opened up a new political situation. It is not yet possible to say for sure, but there are signs of both rupture and continuity with the present, whose evolution remains to be seen, especially in a global context where uncertainty and the possibility of an expanded war reign, given that the Milei government has reoriented the country’s international integration.
What is certain is that Cristina Fernández de Kirchner’s house arrest and lifetime ban from public office constitute an unprecedented event in Argentine politics.
The maelstrom that overwhelms us
Starting on May 18th, political events triggered by the results of the legislative elections in the autonomous city of Buenos Aires took place at a dizzying pace. The unexpected victory of La Libertad Avanza (LLA or Liberty Advances [2]) left Buenos Aires Peronism battered. It certainly didn’t have a bad election, but it became clear that whitewashed rhetoric isn’t enough to face the current electoral challenges. On the other hand, it empowered the LLA, which practically destroyed the Propuesta Republicana (Republican Proposal or PRO led by former Argentine President Mauricio Macri) and quickly forced an alliance in the province of Buenos Aires under the hegemony of the far right.
In the other camp, the results intensified the dispute between Kirchnerism and neo-Kirchnerism until Cristina Fernández, either out of a need to win the September elections, to intensify her rivalry with Kicillof [3], or to seek immunity from a ruling that assumed she would be doomed, ran for provincial deputy for the province’s 3rd electoral section. This prompted the Supreme Court to advance its conviction. This ruling shook Peronism out of its slumber and it quickly organised a massive caravan to accompany her to the courts where she would be detained. But once again, the justice system took the lead, seeking to shut down the caravan under government pressure, and ordered her to be placed under house arrest without the need to appear in court. The accompanying caravan immediately mutated into a rally in the historic Plaza, culminating in a massive mobilisation.
All this in just 30 days (from May 18 to June 18).
The Plaza
It was one of the largest gatherings of its time (between 150,000 and 200,000 people), although it didn’t reach the scale of the university marches of February 1 or March 24 [4]. It was as massive as it was heterogeneous, with a strong and distinct plebeian component. It was noticeable that the majority of the columns were those of La Cámpora Kirchnerist youth movement and the Right to a Future Movement, which in some ways competed.
While the Confederación General del Trabajo (General Confederation of Labour or CGT) decided not to participate as such, large unions such as La Bancaria, the Metalworkers’ Union (UOM), and SMATA (Transportation), ATE (pensioners), and smaller ones such as those comprising the Federal Current and Unión Obrera de la Construcción de la República Argentina (Construction Workers’ Union of the Argentine Republic or UOCRA) branches did participate…
There’s no doubt that a crisis is brewing within the trade unions which could lead to a rupture in the run-up to the October leadership renewal. The UOM’s statement reflects this. This isn’t just a matter of the Kirchnerist unions’ differentiation from the government, but, above all, the government’s encroachment on workers’ rights and exploitative conditions, as well as on the union structures themselves.
This massive rally also expressed a certain willingness to fight, something that hasn’t been present on other occasions, such as the attempted assassination of Cristina Fernández. It remains to be seen whether this willingness is merely episodic, a product of the emotional impact of the ruling, or has deeper roots.
Cristina’s surprising, detached address, delivered in a strikingly calm tone and without her traditional harangues, showed no interest in channelling this disposition. It seemed to have been dedicated to recovering the Peronist epic and laying the groundwork for her political relaunch after having regained her centrality on the national political scene and also within the Partido Justicialista (Justicialist Party or PJ). While she encouraged hope for a "Vamos a Volver" (We’re Going to Return) and the prospect of 2027, she offered no clue as to how to confront the government’s anti-worker and anti-popular policies, despite calling for a debate on the country’s main problem. She concluded that the main problem was none other than the Milei government...
The Left
The anti-capitalist left reacted quickly. The Frente de Izquierda y de los Trabajadores – Unidad (Workers Left Front-Unity or FIT-U) [5] issued a clear statement condemning the ruling and denouncing the ban. That same day, leaders of three of the four parties that make up the FIT-U showed up at the PJ headquarters to express their solidarity and denounce the legal action as a political weapon against the opposition.
Three deputies from the left-wing bloc in parliament then visited Cristina Fernández’s home and met with her, placing the ruling within the framework of US regional policy and the capitalist offensive. Finally, a delegation from the Partido de los Trabajadores Socialistas (Party of Socialist Workers or PTS) attended the meeting convened by the PJ under the slogan "All with Cristina," later changed to "Argentina with Cristina," to once again express their solidarity and their defense of violated democratic rights, but arguing that the call should be broader. Finally, both the PTS and the Partido Obrero (Workers Party or PO) rightly participated and called for participation in the rally in Plaza de Mayo.
Beyond the internal differences that the FIT-U displays in its political positions regarding the immediate situation, the actions of the anti-capitalist left had a wide impact in the media and also on social networks, highlighting that, despite being a minority player, it is ultimately a key player in national politics.
All this leaves open the question of whether, in what is expected to be a framework of strong polarisation, the electoral space for the left will reopen, which, judging by the results of the legislative elections in the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires, had shrunk. Accurately characterising this situation will be no small task, considering that the leading leftist political framework of recent decades will seek to re-enter parliament in the national elections next October. Therefore, the various forces within the anti-capitalist left, especially those not affiliated with the FIT-U parties, will need to review their electoral participation strategies and analyse what they propose to contribute to the return of the most powerful voice of the left to parliament.
Meanwhile
While all this is happening, the economy remains in electoral mode. The economy is subordinated to exchange rate control, via a new debt cycle, and to the decline in inflation, making the domestic market available to imported products. According to various analysts, the markets are wondering how the Caputo model will continue after October.
In parallel, the modification of the Argentine Federal Police Statute was announced. What a year ago would have been done by law of Congress was now done by decree, authorising measures worthy of a State of Siege. In addition, 160 homes from the Procrear Plan were transferred to the police with a stroke of the pen, when they had already been assigned to other recipients. The Armed Forces were authorised to intervene in border areas, and the possession of automatic weapons for civilian use was relaxed. The privatisation policy was implemented, along with further deregulation and the continued closure, restructuring, and/or merger of state agencies. A bill limiting the right to strike will be submitted to parliament, while the Securities and Exchange Commission has already regulated the system intended to replace the severance pay regime.
Everything is moving toward the eventual establishment of a new political regime in the country. Massive and sustained popular mobilisation is what can put a stop to this reactionary process, but this must not sideline the national midterm elections next October, which are also a decisive arena for struggle. The government itself has proposed them as a referendum on the management and direction of its project, which is none other than to produce structural change by prioritising Argentina as a country that exports raw materials and services and is open to transnational capital. This model is supported by the IMF, which is promoting pension and labour reforms for which the government needs the electoral consensus it will seek in the October elections.
The camps are becoming more distinct: the government as the facilitator of the restructuring policies of big capital and the most conservative sectors, and the camp of workers and the popular sectors. The streets, but also the ballot box, can define the situation.
24 June 2025
Translated and annotated by David Fagan for International Viewpoint from vientosur.
